Wednesday, November 16, 2016

To be (with) Modi or not to be (with) Modi


      One of the dilemma that every Indian is facing is whether to support Modi or not, since the time Modi is elected as PM. 
      
      To support Modi means, you will be branded as Hindu fundamentalist, ‘Modi’ Bhakt or may be RSS ‘agent’.  Opposing Modi means, you will be lauded as ‘intellectual’ or ‘secular’ or ‘revolutionary’ (God knows which revolution).  The latter option is glamorous, but not principally acceptable.
     
     The clear mandate that Modi got in 2014 elections clearly reflects that Modi had public support and they wanted a change. Call it a Modi wave or discontent of people against policy paralysed Congress Govt, Modi was elected by the people democratically approved process and not by any military or political coup.  
     
    Showing discontent is one of the cornerstone of democratic process. Everyone has right to express his views, but criticising just for the sake of criticising doesn’t make sense at all. This is what is happening currently in our country. 
    
    Arvind Kejriwal, portrayed himself as champion against corruption. Someone please ask him, will corruption be uprooted from society, just by shouting slogans, staging dharnas?  If he has better solutions, tell him to give those suggestion to Modi Govt. Shouting about problems won’t solve the problems. India needs solutions, not fruitless discussion on problems. 
   
   Rahul Gandhi is seen making noise on OROP. This becomes biggest joke of the century. What was his Govt doing, when it in power for ten long years. Just to refresh memory, Supreme court had passed a judgement that barred convicted politicians from contesting elections. It was a bold decision passed, but was hastily negated by ordinance passed by Congress Govt.  Then there was happy realisation for Rahul Gandhi that ordinance was ‘nonsense’ and that ordinance was scrapped.   
   
    To sum up, Modi is under siege right now. He has invited wrath of his own party members, by forming slim cabinet, thereby depriving most senior leaders the most coveted cabinet berth. His own party leaders therefore tried to embarrass him by making stupid statements. He has always been villain for media, so called  ‘intellectuals’ , ‘seculars’ and communists, before he took over the office.
  
     Last week’s demonetisation move has given enough canon fodder for opposition to rise against Modi.  Media is questioning the validity of this move. 

     Will this demotenization move will end corruption?  Is this full proof  as well as permanant solution against black money?  

      The answer is no. It won’t end corruption. Its just a pin prick, but it has hit straight in heart of corrupt people and black money hoarders.  

      It was a surgical strike aimed against financial terrorism.  Fake currency notes are circulated from porous borders, that we share with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. These notes are circulated across India for funding terror attacks, thereby weakening our national economy.  Also, large amounts of black money is generated through various channels such as hawala transactions, drug as well as human trafficking, illegal betting syndicates, extortion  and arms dealings. All transactions in such shoddy business happen in cash. Such transactions don’t leave any footprint, thereby eroding our national wealth.  Most of this money has now vanished in thin air. Certain amount of money will find its way in mainstream, but still this is welcome step to aid our war against terror.  

     This whole exercise is packaged as a stringent measure to fight corruption to convince the masses. The majority of Indians are not affected by terrorism than they are affected by corruption. For most of the masses, terrorism has to be discussed, condemned and forgotten till next terror attack. Terrorism is equally serious issue, that has to be dealt with iron hand. Demonetisation has hit this network very hard.

   Also, traditional moneylenders who have been exploiting farmers in rural areas will go out of business, at least for sometime. Now only place where a person can get loan will be through bank. The companies will be forced to borrow money from bank or list themselves in stock market to finance their business plans.

     As far as fight against corruption is concerned, it has hit the corrupt where it hurts most. The corrupt people and black money hoarders have started feeling the heat for first time.  The stupid ones will make mistakes and get caught. The clever ones will find innovative ways to stash their black money. But now their options of keeping black money will be limited to banks, insurance, stock market, mutual funds,  real estate, gold or diamonds, but not cash. Storing money in form of cash has now become a risky affair. 

     This will eventually make banking sector and stock market stronger in coming months. Increase in bank deposits and investments in stock markets will boost our economy. Bank and stock markets define the economic growth of every nation. More stronger these institutions will become, more faster our country will grow.

     When this demonetisation was announced, many people shouted in chorus that this is going to fail. Even if this social experiment fails, it will test the character of our nation. Just for the fear of failure,  we countrymen shouldn’t stop experimenting.  Dr Manmohan Singh conducted such experiment in 1991. It was criticised by everyone, but it was a huge success. But this same doctor stopped experimenting during his stint as PM. Fear of failure to take certain necessary steps had paralysed the decision making power of that government. 

      Such experiments should continue ....

      Let Mamta, Maya, Laloo, Bhaloos, Pappu  attack Modi’s move, we Indians should stand by him to make this a grand success.  

Saturday, October 8, 2016

How to train 'Chinese' dragon

   Recently,  I can see lot of noise is being made on boycotting Chinese goods. I appreciate such  endeavour, but let us be honest that practically it’s not possible. India is back office of the world, whereas China is manufacturing hub of the world, a universal truth that’s accepted worldwide.  
Any commodity we are using, it may electronic item or mechanical device, it has been directly or indirectly made in China. We just can’t dump those items and close our economy to thrive on indigenously made goods. This is not just a case for India, it’s a same story for US. 90% of goods sold in US are manufactured in China. From iPhones to spares of vehicles, everything is fabricated in China.      
     We want to hit China, where it hurts most. But times have changed now. We live in globalised world. Instead of hurting China, we should try to bring it on our side. And we can do it.
    Instead of boycotting Chinese goods, we should increase consumption of Chinese goods and make our market competitive. We should consume so much Chinese goods that China should be forced to open manufacturing centres in India. We should allow Chinese to build bullet trains network and increase their investments in India to build infrastructure. India should ensure that Chinese investments in India should be doubled that Chinese politburo will be forced to dump Pakistan to save its investments in India. We should encourage Indians to go and settle in China. 
    In Cold war era, US always looked towards India, with suspicion. Till 2000, US policies were always against India. But there was revolution happening in background. In 1990s, there was exodus of Indians who migrated to US. They started working as employee and then transformed themselves as entrepreneurs. Cynics branded such activity as ‘brain drain’ thereby terming it as loss of India’s ‘intellectual’ property to foreign country. But things changed, and  India was flooded with lots of business opportunities of software services and outsourcing. The rising middle class powered India’s growth story and US found a growing market in South East Asia. Also, pool of Indian Americans have become ‘vote bank’ that started influencing US policy towards India. The land of snake charmers and rope magicians suddenly got transformed into a land of technicians, who can fix software issues of US companies or support their customers from call centres.  
    US investments in India has grown and now US would like to safeguards its market as well as its investments in India. We should apply similar treatment for China. China means business and more business opportunities for China would mean more Chinese investment in India. 
   On the other hand, we should continue all our efforts to isolate Pakistan. Do away with ‘MFN’ status to Pakistan. Continue firing regularly on their border post and make Pakistani military  as insecure as possible. Days of restraint are over and its time that we start kicking their arse. Boycott everything that is  Pakistani. Insecure Pakistani Govt will increase their defence spendings, thereby adding burden on their economy. Someday hungry Pakistani ‘Awam’ will rise against their Govt, triggering Arab spring like uprising in their country. This will keep Pakistani Army as well ISI busy internally as well as externally. One such civil war will eventually break Pakistan into multiple pieces, on lines of USSR.
   After recent surgical strikes, many Indians started feeling insecure. They felt that war will break out anytime. But it wont happen in near future. Nawaz Sharif is a bad politician, but a successful businessman. War with India would spell death knell to his business empire. Also, Pakistani Army knows well that they cannot defeat India in conventional war. So they resort to such proxy wars games. Such proxy war games and backdoor peace diplomacy will continue, till the time we keep pampering Pakistanis. So say NO TO PAKISTAN, stop all ‘Aman ka Tamasha’ and this time be firm.
   Chinese leadership looks to be more prudent than their American counterparts. They are facing issues because of Uighur separatist. Hopefully, they won’t wait till their 9/11 moment by being in bad company of Pakistan. 
   We have to engage both Pakistan and  China both, but differently.  Prudence is not in fighting with enemy to defeat him, its in frustrating the enemy and  forcing him to abandon his tactics and retreat.

   We got to somehow give ‘Jadoo ki Jhappi’ to China and ‘GPL’ to Pakistan.